Title

Statistical Estimation of Railroad Congestion Delay

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

5-2009

Publication Source

Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review

Abstract

This research identifies factors that are the major contributors to freight rail congestion using statistical analysis. Total train running time is predicted based on free running time predictors (horsepower per ton, track topography and slow orders) and congestion-related factors (meets, passes, overtakes, prior time periods’ train counts, total train hours, train spacing variability, and train departure headway). Primary congestion predictive factors (meets, passes, overtakes) are consistently found to have the largest effect on congestion delay. The predictive equations are used to forecast average monthly train running time with a 4.6% mean absolute percent error.

Inclusive pages

446–456

ISBN/ISSN

1366-5545

Comments

Permission documentation is on file.

Publisher

Elsevier

Volume

45

Issue

3

Peer Reviewed

yes