Physics Faculty Publications
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
9-2008
Publication Source
Energy Policy
Abstract
Emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. We propose in this paper that it is useful to look at a qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, to gain a sense of carbon emission bounds. Here we look at what may be considered a lower bound for 21st century emissions given two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by “peak oil” adherents, and second, that no climate mitigation policies are put in place to limit emissions. If resources, and more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are more limited than posited in full energy-system models, a supply-driven emissions scenario results; however, we show that even in this “peak fossil-fuel” limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2 °C climate protection guardrails. Some indicators are presented that the scenario presented here should not be disregarded, and comparisons are made to the outputs of emission scenarios used for the IPCC reports.
Inclusive pages
3492–3504
ISBN/ISSN
0301-4215
Document Version
Postprint
Copyright
Copyright © 2008, Elsevier
Publisher
Elsevier
Volume
36
Issue
9
Peer Reviewed
yes
eCommons Citation
Brecha, Robert J., "Emissions Scenarios in the Face of Fossil-Fuel Peaking" (2008). Physics Faculty Publications. 23.
https://ecommons.udayton.edu/phy_fac_pub/23
Included in
Engineering Physics Commons, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment Commons, Environmental Monitoring Commons, Natural Resource Economics Commons, Natural Resources and Conservation Commons, Natural Resources Management and Policy Commons, Oil, Gas, and Energy Commons, Other Physics Commons, Sustainability Commons
Comments
The document available for download is the author's accepted manuscript, provided in compliance with the publisher's policy on self-archiving. Permission documentation is on file.
It is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution, Noncommercial, No-derivatives license (CC-BY-NC-ND).