Document Type

Article

Publication Date

5-2010

Publication Source

Journal of Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties

Abstract

Party identification remained an important determinant of vote choice in the 2008 election. Indeed, the extent to which people voted according to their partisanship remained as exceptionally high as it had been in the 2004 election. The Democrats led in partisanship, with a greater lead than in 2004. The ANES four‐wave panel survey shows that some change occurred in the Democratic direction during 2008. The Democrats gained among most population groups, with the exception of older citizens. Obama's victory margin was due to his carrying pure independents and the growth in strong Democrats as opposed to strong Republicans. Both candidates lost the votes of some partisans who disagreed with them ideologically. The rate of defection among major‐party identifiers to the other major party hit post‐1950 lows in 2004 and 2008, reflecting increased polarization in the electorate. The partisanship shifts of young people and Hispanics could portend realignment, although that depends on their satisfaction with the Obama administration.

Inclusive pages

213-240

ISBN/ISSN

1745-7289

Document Version

Postprint

Comments

The document available for download is the author's accepted manuscript, provided in compliance with the publisher's policy on self-archiving. Differences may exist between this document and the published version, which is available using the link provided. Permission documentation is on file.

Citation: Weisberg, Herbert F. 2010. “Partisan Defection and Change in the 2008 US Presidential Election.” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties 20(2): 213-240.

Publisher

Taylor and Francis

Volume

20

Issue

2

Peer Reviewed

yes