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Abstract

This paper examines the factors that have contributed to the persistence of high fertility in sub-Saharan Africa. It begins with an overview of the current fertility situation. It then traces historical colonial trends that are still influencing population growth in present-day Africa and examines traditional cultural supports for high fertility, such as the practice of polygyny and the strong aversion to childlessness. Some countries in sub-Saharan Africa already have begun a transition to lower fertility, whereas in others, women still bear an average of seven or eight children.

Even if there were greater demand for family planning services, the disruptions brought about by wars and conflicts on the African continent make it difficult to obtain and use contraceptives, as people are displaced and supplies are cut off. The recent emphasis on a reproductive health agenda that provides comprehensive health care for women, rather than simply focusing on fertility reduction, may inadvertently lead to larger families, at least in the short term. Finally, the HIV/AIDS epidemic is gathering momentum in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa; it has already had seismic effects on life expectancy and is expected to slow but not reverse population growth in many countries of the region. The effect of AIDS on fertility can be both positive and negative and requires further data and analysis. The last section of the paper addresses the future of fertility in sub-Saharan Africa and offers some tentative predictions.

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