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Asfaw Yitna

Abstract

Addis Ababa, the capital city of Ethiopia, reported a surprisingly low TFR level of 1.8 births per woman in the year 1994. Such a low level has never been experienced by any other large African city. In this paper, we attempt to confirm the adjusted level fertility of 2.1 births per woman and thus the fertility decline reported by the Central Statistical Authority (CSA), and to explore the important demographics, socio-economic and proximate determinants of fertility decline of Addis Ababa from 1974 to 1998.

We use data from fertility surveys of 1990 and 1995, conducted in Addis Ababa by CSA, and the age-sex distribution of population of the 1984 and 1994 population censuses. We conclude in the study that the estimate made by CSA of 2.14 births per woman is quite acceptable. We provide a plausible estimate of 2.2 births per woman as an alternative estimate of TFR for the period of 1989-1994. We provide a time series values of TFRs and model ASFRs, starting from 1974-1979 to 1998.

The study also provides Bongaarts indices, indirectly for the time periods of 1974-1979; 1979-1984; 1984-1989; 1989-1994; and also for 1998 for Addis Ababa from the simple information on TFRs. Furthermore, using index values we show that fertility has declined sharply over time. We conclude that although marriage pattern has played a significant role in the decline of fertility recently, the role of contraceptive is also a factor in the decline. But the impact of contraceptives is observed to be low compared to that of marriage. We therefore recommend improvements in the effects of contraceptives by means of advising women in the reproductive ages to use contraceptives to limit births, rather than increased postponement of marriage (the average age of which for women is around the mid 20s, which could sometimes lead to contracting HlV/AIDS). We also recommend the use of the services of voluntary organizations for demographic effects, such as reducing mortality.

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