Why VPs Matter Less than You Think
Few myths of American politics remain as deeply entrenched and blindly accepted as that of the electoral power of the vice presidential pick. Already in 2016, pundits have speculated that Governor John Kasich would deliver Ohio if selected as the Republican vice presidential nominee, or that fellow Ohioan Senator Sherrod Brown could deliver the state to Democrats instead. Likewise, Senator Tim Kaine could deliver Virginia. In 2012, Paul Ryan would do the same for Wisconsin, Rob Portman for Ohio, and Bob McDonnell for Virginia. In 2008, it was Bill Richardson; in 2004, Bob Graham; in 2000, Tom Ridge. You get the idea.
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Kopko, Kyle C. and Devine, Christopher J., "Why VPs Matter Less than You Think" (2016). Political Science Faculty Publications. 80.