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Due to the rise of analytics in the NFL, teams go for it on 4th down more often than in past history. Teams like the Baltimore Ravens have adapted the philosophy of being more aggressive on 4th down, other teams still are more resistance to this change. Coaches may defend the decisions, statistics like win probability and estimated points added disagree. Using statistical models, this study includes all NFL 4th downs from 2014-19 with games within 21 points at the time of the play. The research will demonstrate when it warrants more aggressive behavior dependent on the situation, such as down and distance, score, time, or location of game, to enhance their chances of winning games.
Peter J. Titlebaum
Primary Advisor's Department
Health and Sport Science
Stander Symposium project, School of Education and Health Sciences
"Historical 4th Downs and Win Probability Models in the NFL" (2020). Stander Symposium Projects. 1908.