Fouad O. Saleh
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In this study, using a two step regression model, I develop the functional relationship between (1) U.S. govt. debt and safe interest rates (T20 govt. bond) and safe interest rates and 6 sector etf' price indexes. The regression models are run over the period 2009-2019 with quarterly data. I test two key hypotheses: (1) U.S. government debt growth is inversely related to safe interest rates and (2) safe interest rates are inversely related to sector returns.Using the slope coefficients from the safe rate regressions on S&P 500 sector price indexes, I also develop a 6 sector portfolio weighting model and test the hypothesis that safe rates are a priced in risk factor in the equity market i.e., the 6 sector portfolio weighting model outperforms the broad equity market over the long term period,2009-2019.
Tony S. Caporale, Robert D. Dean
Primary Advisor's Department
Economics and Finance
Stander Symposium project, School of Business Administration
United Nations Sustainable Development Goals
"U.S. Government Debt, Safe Rates and Stock Returns: An Empirical Analysis, 2009-2019 Abstract" (2022). Stander Symposium Projects. 2665.