Pathways to a Greener Cement Industry in Nepal: Forecasting Energy and CO₂ for 2030 SDG Compliance

Pathways to a Greener Cement Industry in Nepal: Forecasting Energy and CO₂ for 2030 SDG Compliance

Presenter(s)

Sobit Sapkota

Comments

3:00-4:15, Kennedy Union Ballroom

Description

Nepal's cement industry, a major contributor to the nation's economic growth, faces pressingchallenges in aligning its expansion with climate and energy sustainability goals. This studyemploys the Markov Chain Grey Model (MCGM) integrated with scenario analysis to forecastthe industry's energy consumption and CO2 emissions through 2030. Findings reveal that under abusiness-as-usual scenario, energy use is set to surge by 107%, with CO2 emissions rising by220%—an alarming 63% above the target for the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).However, in an optimized scenario incorporating energy efficiency improvements and low-carbon technologies, energy demand could be limited to a 26% increase, with CO2 emissionsmeeting the SDG threshold. The results highlight the critical need for strategic policy support,advanced technologies, and sector-wide commitment to achieve climate targets and manageenergy demand effectively. By enhancing the forecasting precision of the MCGM, this studyprovides actionable insights for climate policy and sustainable energy strategies, offering apathway for Nepal's cement industry to contribute meaningfully to national and global climateobjectives.

Publication Date

4-23-2025

Project Designation

Graduate Research

Primary Advisor

Jun-Ki Choi

Primary Advisor's Department

Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering

Keywords

Stander Symposium, School of Engineering

Institutional Learning Goals

Scholarship; Scholarship; Scholarship

Pathways to a Greener Cement Industry in Nepal: Forecasting Energy and CO₂ for 2030 SDG Compliance

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