Future Changes of Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Extreme Precipitation in Ohio Based on CMIP6 Climate Models

Future Changes of Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Extreme Precipitation in Ohio Based on CMIP6 Climate Models

Presenter(s)

Joseph Baker

Comments

9:20-9:40, Kennedy Union 222

Description

The purpose of this study is to generate future Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves for extreme precipitation events in Ohio under three climate change scenarios using output of CMIP6 climate models. IDF curves define the amount of precipitation produced by storms of various durations with specific return intervals. They are used widely by many groups including engineers and urban planners for infrastructure design and other projects. Current IDF curves are generated based on past climate data and the assumption that the climate of a region does not change over time. However, climate change is expected to significantly increase extreme precipitation in the future. Therefore, it is important to update IDF curves to account for such changes. For this study, we used two main datasets: historical precipitation data of 1970-2014 from rain gauges in Ohio and precipitation data from 28 CMIP6 models including the historical run (1970-2014) and future runs (2015-2100) under ssp245, ssp370, and ssp585 scenarios. We extracted model data covering Ohio (38.125-41.875N and 84.875-80.125W). We first compared the model historical runs with observational data to evaluate the models and correct model biases. After that, we used the frequency analysis method to establish the magnitude of precipitation events of different durations with different return intervals. With these results, we developed future IDF curves under three climate change scenarios. In general, extreme precipitation will increase more than average precipitation, and the rate of change is generally higher for shorter-duration and more extreme (i.e., longer return intervals) events. Our results could provide practical guidance for designing long-lasting infrastructure projects.

Publication Date

4-23-2025

Project Designation

Independent Research

Primary Advisor

Shuang-Ye Wu

Primary Advisor's Department

Geology and Environmental Geosciences

Keywords

Stander Symposium, College of Arts and Sciences

Institutional Learning Goals

Critical Evaluation of Our Times; Scholarship; Vocation

Future Changes of Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Extreme Precipitation in Ohio Based on CMIP6 Climate Models

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