Sector Return Cyclicality: Investigating the Relationship Between Past and Future Performance

Authors

Presenter(s)

Christopher Casey, Dominic Fiorilli, Kylie Jackson, Michael Kondritz, Jordan Nelson, Cannon Spelman

Comments

9:00-10:15, Kennedy Union Ballroom

Files

Description

For this project, we are analyzing whether sector returns and outperformance relative to the S&P 500 have a predictive relationship with future performance. Using historical sector data dating back to January 1, 1990, we will run regressions across multiple time horizons ranging from 1 to 10 years to test for cyclicality and determine whether past outperforming sectors are more likely to continue outperforming or revert to underperformance. By identifying potential patterns in sector returns over different time frames, this analysis aims to assess whether cyclical trends exist and if they could be used to inform investment decisions. Future steps include evaluating the strength and consistency of these relationships and exploring additional statistical techniques, such as lagged regressions, to refine the findings.

Publication Date

4-23-2025

Project Designation

Independent Research

Primary Advisor

Henry G. Willmore

Primary Advisor's Department

Economics and Finance

Keywords

Stander Symposium, School of Business Administration

Recommended Citation

"Sector Return Cyclicality: Investigating the Relationship Between Past and Future Performance" (2025). Stander Symposium Projects. 4178.
https://ecommons.udayton.edu/stander_posters/4178