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In this study I examine the correlation patterns between the price movements for the four intermediate stages of production and final demand prices. Since changes in final demand prices reflect both the levels of demand for goods and services and the rate of inflation, they are particularly important to investors in the financial markets.Using step-wise regression analysis, I develop predictor equations that show final demand prices as a function of the prices for the four intermediate stages of production. Monthly times series for the above price variables over the period 2004-2014 are used in the analysis. I expect all of the b coefficients to be positive and statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.

Publication Date


Project Designation

Independent Research

Primary Advisor

Trevor C Collier

Primary Advisor's Department

Economics and Finance


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Arts and Humanities | Business | Education | Engineering | Life Sciences | Medicine and Health Sciences | Physical Sciences and Mathematics | Social and Behavioral Sciences

Are intermediate stage product prices early warning indicators of U.S. final goods prices? A covariance analysis for the period 2004-2014.