Sydnee C. Haymore, John V. Ruma, Kristen N. Timko
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The purpose of this study is to determine if Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) forecasting models for different inflation indexes (e.g. Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCEPI) are statistically reliable and efficient for one and two years out of sample. Our benchmark for success is a 12 month average forecast error of 2.5% or less. We use time trend regressions to develop our RMSE inflation forecasting models. Our trend regression time periods are 2009-2017 and 2009-2018. 2019, 2020, and 2021 are the out-of-sample forecasting years.
Tony S. Caporale, Robert D. Dean
Primary Advisor's Department
Economics and Finance
Stander Symposium project, School of Business Administration
United Nations Sustainable Development Goals
"A Root Mean Square Error Forecasting Model for Inflation: An Empirical Analysis, 2009-2021" (2022). Stander Symposium Projects. 2663.