Presenter(s)

Joseph Walter Baker

Comments

Presentation: 9:00-10:15, Kennedy Union Ballroom

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Description

Rainfall Intensity Duration and Frequency (IDF) relationships, often expressed in IDF curves, are an essential tool in civil engineering. The IDF curves provide information on the expected intensity of a storm of a certain duration (e.g. three hours, one day) with a certain return interval (e.g. once every 10, 25, or 50 years) at a single location. They are used extensively in the design and development of drainage systems of all modern infrastructure. NOAA’s Atlas 14 provides the IDF relationship for the entire United States, based on precipitation data collected at thousands of weather stations across the country with the last version that covered Ohio being released in 2006. The underlying assumption is that the precipitation pattern is stationary and not expected to change over time. However this assumption is not valid as we face rapid climate change, which is likely to cause changes in the global and local precipitation patterns. We have already seen significant increases in extreme precipitation events, which is likely to continue over this century. Therefore, the objective of this study is to determine how climate change will affect the IDF relationship at Dayton, Ohio. This study relies on two major datasets. The first is historical precipitation data from NOAA weather stations covering the time periods of 15 minutes, 1 hour, and 1 day. The maximum range of this data is from 1971 to 2014. The second dataset is the global climate model (GCM) output for future precipitation. 10-20 GCMs are selected based on their performance in the Dayton region. The historical runs are used for bias correction, and the future runs of 2070-2100 are used to project future change. The results of this study will provide crucial information on building climate adaptation and resilience in infrastructure design and implementation for the Greater Dayton region.

Publication Date

4-17-2024

Project Designation

Independent Research

Primary Advisor

Shuang-Ye Wu

Primary Advisor's Department

Geology

Keywords

Stander Symposium, College of Arts and Sciences

Institutional Learning Goals

Critical Evaluation of Our Times; Scholarship

Creation of new Precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for the Dayton Region

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