Presenter(s)

    Christopher Casey, Dominic Fiorilli, Kylie Jackson, Michael Kondritz, Jordan Nelson, Cannon Spelman

    Comments

    9:00-10:15, Kennedy Union Ballroom

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    Description

    For this project, we are analyzing whether sector returns and outperformance relative to the S&P 500 have a predictive relationship with future performance. Using historical sector data dating back to January 1, 1990, we will run regressions across multiple time horizons ranging from 1 to 10 years to test for cyclicality and determine whether past outperforming sectors are more likely to continue outperforming or revert to underperformance. By identifying potential patterns in sector returns over different time frames, this analysis aims to assess whether cyclical trends exist and if they could be used to inform investment decisions. Future steps include evaluating the strength and consistency of these relationships and exploring additional statistical techniques, such as lagged regressions, to refine the findings.

    Publication Date

    4-23-2025

    Project Designation

    Independent Research

    Primary Advisor

    Henry G. Willmore

    Primary Advisor's Department

    Economics and Finance

    Keywords

    Stander Symposium, School of Business Administration

    Sector Return Cyclicality: Investigating the Relationship Between Past and Future Performance

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