Presenter(s)
Courtney E. Cady
Files
Download Project (445 KB)
Description
The Federal Reserve, as a key element in its monetary policy, uses a 2% target inflation rate to determine if the federal funds rate needs to be increased. The purpose of this study is to evaluate long, intermediate, and short term trends in inflation to determine if the inflation policy objective has been reached. My inflation metric is Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) and the period of analysis is 2001-20015. I develop linear trend equations for both PCE and PCE less food and energy using the b coefficients from the regressions as a proxy for the PCE inflation rate. Out of sample forecasts are made for 2015 and the first couple of months in 2016.
Publication Date
4-9-2016
Project Designation
Independent Research
Primary Advisor
Trevor C. Collier
Primary Advisor's Department
Economics and Finance
Keywords
Stander Symposium project
Disciplines
Arts and Humanities | Business | Education | Engineering | Life Sciences | Medicine and Health Sciences | Physical Sciences and Mathematics | Social and Behavioral Sciences
Recommended Citation
"Inflation Trends in Personal Consumption Expenditures, 2001-2015" (2016). Stander Symposium Projects. 707.
https://ecommons.udayton.edu/stander_posters/707
Included in
Arts and Humanities Commons, Business Commons, Education Commons, Engineering Commons, Life Sciences Commons, Medicine and Health Sciences Commons, Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons, Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons
