Stander Symposium Projects

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  Working Towards Global Goals by Partnering with Local Community Organizations through the Semester of Service Program

  Victoria Boehlert-Somohano, Mary Charleton, Dana Kieft, Kayla Kingston, Michelle Smith, Carter Spires

  Students in the Spring 2020 Semester of Service program are currently taking a sabbatical from traditional courses and working full-time with a local community organization. During this presentation, students will share more about the work they are doing at their placement sites and how the work of those organizations are contributing to the UN's 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Come hear more about the work being done at Adventure Center, ABLE Law, Brunner Literacy, County Corps, Dayton Children's Hospital, the Dakota Center, the Dayton Foodbank, and Homefull.

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  World Development Applied Locally

  Ryan Darnell Scott

  Working on this project has given me a better understanding of how human rights work can fit into our daily lives. Very often we think of human rights or international treaties as something that is above us; we do not directly see how they shape the world around us. Through this project, I have not only learned how these entities play into my life as a student in Dayton, Ohio, but I have also learned how they can be used to mobilize communities through comprehensive advocacy plans. Coming out of this experience, I now see the connection between international work and local efforts and have a better understanding of the role I can play in shaping my community for the better.

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  "You Don't Understand... It's Not About Virginity": Sexual Markets, Identity Construction, and Violent Masculinity on an Incel Forum Board.

  Josh Segalewitz

  The manosphere refers to the online collection of antifeminists and men’s rights activists. It represents one way technology allows for interactions in new, digital social networks. Incels, short for involuntary celibates, interact in this space and have been labeled as extreme misogynists, white supremacists, and domestic terrorists. I engage with popular sociological theories of masculinity (including hegemonic, hybrid, and inclusive masculinities) to analyze dominant discourses on the website incels.is. The data for this project include comments from 100 threads randomly sampled from 4,532 total threads posted in 2018. Through grounded coding methodology, I identify the importance of navigating threatened masculinity online, particularly with respect to sexuality. Further, I find that incel ideology rests on the creation of sexual hierarchies that emphasize perceived attractiveness. Finally, I explore the debates within this space over who is able to claim membership and how borders of the space are policed. In its entirety, this study reveals how marginalized men may respond to and reproduce gendered hierarchies.

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  ω1, the First Uncountable Ordinal

  Nick Kendall Gonano

  This poster serves to highlight several of the properties of ω1, the first uncountable ordinal. Several of the more interesting properties are presented, including those of functions from the first uncountable ordinal into the real numbers. Key to this presentation is the definition of an ordinal: an ordinal n is the set of all numbers less than n, starting at 0. For example, the number 3 is an ordinal composed of the numbers {0, 1, 2}. Also important is the definition of countable: a countable set has the same number of elements as omega, which one should note is very different than ω1. An additional definition to note is that of a well-ordered set. These sets are nonempty and have a least element. Closed and unbounded subsets, hereafter referred to as cub sets, have the properties that all sequences in the set converge to an element of the set, and also that there is no upper bound to the set. Stationary subsets of ω1 are those that, intersected with every cub set in ω1, have a nonempty intersection. This poster will also cover some of the differences between ω1 and the real numbers.

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  A Call for Research on the Development of MDD with Psychotic Features

  Christopher Patrick Courtney

  In recent years, Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) is becoming more normalized especially as medication for it appears in commercials and other media on a regular basis. Psychotic symptoms, an often-misunderstood specifier for this disorder, are occurring more frequently while being discussed less often. These symptoms can manifest in many ways, including but not exclusive to paranoid delusions as well as auditory or visual hallucinations, and can be congruent or incongruent to the client’s mood. While at the current moment, medication is viewed as the primary treatment, other forms of psychosis-specific treatment are emerging and need to be studied more intently (e.g. Cognitive Behavioral Therapy). Existing research on the developmental path of MDD with psychotic features is not sufficient to inform these integrative treatment modalities. This poster presents the current literature on MDD and highlights areas for future study.

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  A Campaign to Motivate College-Aged, Catholic Women to Get Tested for STIs at the University of Dayton

  Emma Rutledge Venetis

  In 2017, women ages 20-24 had the highest rate of chlamydia cases among any age group for men or women. Additionally, Catholic women are more likely to have “hooked up” while in college than women with no religious affiliation. Due to the already high rate of STIs among young adults, the frequency of sexual activity of college students and the increased frequency for Catholic women, the fact that many STIs are asymptomatic, and the health risks that untreated STIs can cause, testing for, diagnosing, and treating STIs is critical to stop the increasing spread of these infections. According to results from the American College Health Association’s [ACHA] National College Health Assessment Survey conducted in 2018, 98% of college students say that they have not dealt with an STI in the last 12 months. In fact, only 1.8% of college students say that they have been diagnosed or treated for chlamydia, despite the extremely high rates of infection among their age group. This does not suggest that college students are not at risk for STIs, especially considering that less than half of college students who engaged in vaginal intercourse in the past 30 days reported using a condom or other protective barrier. Instead, it suggests that this population is not being tested for STIs at the frequency needed to diagnose and treat STIs. The present investigation surveyed college-aged women to better understand the attitudes, norms, and self-efficacy of Catholic, female UD students surrounding the health behavior of STI testing. This research will propose a campaign and provide specific communication strategies to motivate female Catholic UD students to get tested for STIs at the UD Health Center.

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  A Comparative Analysis of Breast Cancer Treatments and the Role of Taxane-based Chemotherapy-induced Peripheral Neuropathy on Postural Stability

  Paige Lynn Ingram

  Twelve percent of women suffer from breast cancer each year, but survivorship is increasing due to improvements in treatments. However, it appears there are lasting effects after treatment due to the toxicity of chemotherapy compounds. One of the most severe side effects is peripheral neuropathy which results in decreased sensation in the nervous system. With this loss, an individual’s balance and postural stability is likely impacted, leading to an altered quality of life. Monfort et al. at the Ohio State University are among the first to identify balance deficits in breast cancer patients during treatment, even after the first treatment cycle. We recently joined with them as they extended this work to include long-term follow-up testing after the completion of treatment. Our efforts specifically investigate postural stability, range of motion, and balance control while individuals stand on a force plate, looking at variances between individuals receiving different treatments and experiencing diverse outcomes. Preliminary data analysis from the limits of stability balance tests suggest there are differences between the three subject groups, with those not receiving neurotoxic chemotherapy showing the most consistent improvement 6 months after treatment. Breast cancer survivors that were treated with neurotoxic chemotherapy had varied individual responses 6 months post treatment. Further data analysis using traditional and alternative postural measures is currently underway to ascertain postural differences between the subject groups; however our results suggest that interventions to improve the postural stability of those treated with neurotoxic chemotherapy may be warranted.

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  A Comparative Analysis of Rules Based Versus Passive Index Portfolio Returns (2009-2017)

  Brendan James McDonnell

  Rules based portfolios of stocks, often referred to as Smart Beta or Quant based portfolios, are increasingly being used by investment managers to enhance portfolio performance. In this study, I develop a fundamentals base 2 factor portfolio weighting model for 10 and 20 stock (concentrated) Portfolios in the S&P 500 Healthcare sector (XLV). I compare the the returns for these concentrated portfolios to the returns for the S&P 500 Index, ETF SPY, and the SPDR Healthcare Sector ETF, XLV. My sector weights are sales growth and relative price change, and the period of analysis is 2009-2017. I test the hypothesis that a rules based portfolio of stocks will outperform a broad based passive index (SPY) and its sector counterpart (XLV).

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  A Comparison of Numerical Solutions of the Black-Scholes Heat Equation for European Call Option

  Lijun Lin

  In this work, we present some numerical solutions to the famous Black-Scholes equation. Although a closed form solution for the price of European options is available, the prices of more complicated derivatives such as American options may require a numerical solution of the Black-Scholes equation. This poster will focus primarily on the solution to the equation for the European call option.

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  A comparison of Pre and Post 2008 inflation trends for the consumer Price Index (CPI) Less Food and Energy: An Empirical Analysis 1999-2018.

  Christian Gerard Hense

  Despite an aggressive policy of Monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. Inflation seems to be rather benign after the 2008 recession. In this study I compare inflation trends before and after the 2008 recession to determine if the long term inflation trend has significantly changed due to the 2008 economic rescission. I use the inflation metric CPI -Less Food and Energy because it is a measurable, less volatile measure of inflation. I also forecast CPI (LF&E) for 2018 using Linear Trend regressions adjusted for a root mean square error (RMSE). I use an error tolerance of 2% to determine forecasting accuracy.

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  A Composting Cooperative

  Carter Douglas Spires

  Co-op Dayton is a non-profit organization that supports the development of community and worker-owned cooperatives in the Dayton region, across industries but with a strong interest in environmental sustainability. In partnership with the ETHOS and the Fitz Center, Carter Spires first interned with Co-op Dayton in the Spring of 2018 with the goal of researching potential “green” cooperatives for our region. It was found that southwest Ohio lacks commercial composting facilities and began to research the potential of developing one as a cooperative. Co-op Dayton spoke with several compost stakeholders and developed a partnership with a local compost social enterprise, GoZERO, which is interested in expanding in the Dayton region as a worker-owned cooperative. This Spring, Co-op Dayton has been connecting major employers and producers of food waste in the Dayton region that may be interested in the services of a compost cooperative, while developing proposals for both the governance and financial transition of GoZERO to the cooperative model.

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  A Cross-national Study of Whole Number Addition and Subtraction

  Mary Margaret Ghiloni

  While mathematical fluency is of great value in everyday life, in a changing world where information is easily accessible to students, problem solving skills and deep understanding of why math works over how it works is of more value and can be applied to both mathematical and non mathematical situations. When students move on from formal schooling and take their place in the “real world,” they will excel when they have the skills to create new ideas, evaluate new and existing ideas, and defend their own will allow students to effectively analyze the world around them. This study examines 1st-3rd grade textbooks from Singapore, Finland and the United States in an effort to pinpoint how these countries develop mathematical concepts. In particular, this study looks at whole number addition, subtraction by analyzing textbook problems, how they utilize different representations, algorithms and cognitive levels. This study increases our understanding of how math is being taught in different countries and how this might contribute to disparities in international test results.

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  A CTC and D2D based Network Architecture for Reliable and Energy-Efficient Public Safety Communication

  Jielun Zhang

  Public Safety Communication (PSC) is responsible to provide reliable communications between the first responders and the victims in public safety scenarios. Some state-of-the-art wireless communication technologies, such as Cross-Technology Communication (CTC) and Device-to-Device (D2D) communication, are providing more possibilities of the connectivity amongst different communication devices. For instance, CTC enables communications between heterogeneous wireless devices (e.g. Wi-Fi, ZigBee, and Bluetooth) operating in the same ISM band, and D2D communication allows direct communication between wireless devices without traversing a base station. These features make them be promising to be applied for reliable PSC network establishments. They can replace those traditional wireless communication technologies which are not specially designed for PSC networks. In this research work, we propose a novel PSC network architecture based on CTC and D2D communication technologies. To be specific, we propose a novel device clustering scheme to expand the coverage of the PSC network. Cluster heads and cluster gateways in the scheme are chosen from a group of user equipment (UE) based on particular metrics, e.g., residual battery power, received signal strength indicator, etc. Moreover, we propose a scheduling scheme for managing the UE in our PSC network to improve energy efficiency. The simulation results demonstrate that our proposed PSC network architecture can provide reliable public safety communications with high energy efficiency.

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  Addressing Food Insecurity through the use of Cooking Demonstrations at a Local Mobile Food Pantry

  Marie Frances Harla

  Food insecurity and lack of cooking skills are issues that are prevalent in Dayton, Ohio. Many individuals and families visit food pantries and utilize other forms of nutrition assistance programs as a hunger safety net. With God’s Grace, a mobile food pantry, is providing monthly food distributions at East End Community Center in Dayton to those in need. In order to build cooking skills and nutrition education, a cooking demonstration was added to the monthly food distribution at East End. University of Dayton dietetic students run the cooking demonstration, and the purpose of this is to provide nutrition education and build cooking skills. The purpose of this study is to explore if the cooking demonstrations will increase utilization of the food that is distributed. Data will be collected from a survey after the participants have seen the cooking demonstration and tasted the sample. Recipes will also be distributed so that the participants can re-create the meal at home. The goal is to create healthy and easy recipes that participants will want to make on their own. The survey collects data on if they liked the recipe, why they would make it, and what are any barriers to making it. Survey results have been collected from September 2018 through February 2019, and they will be analyzed to explore how effective the cooking demonstration was to increasing people’s likelihood of utilizing the food provided by the mobile food pantry.

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  Adjusting the existing health documents to raise awareness about health risks of smoking for the Intensive English Program students

  Lauren Brooke Alvarez, Jake Michael Knight, Teresa Yuk Yu Wong

  Far too often in the U.S., healthcare documents are published at a level of reading well above what the intended audience can comprehend. When people cannot comprehend health-related materials, they are said to have low health literacy, which involves the wide range of skills and competencies to comprehend, evaluate and use health information to make informed health-related decisions to lower their health risks. Inability to read patient education materials can lead to poor overall health and high mortality. For this project we partnered with students in UD’s Intensive English Program (IEP), and revised two existing healthcare documents on smoking, a topic that was of interest to them, and made a single document that was more readable and useful for the IEP students. During this project, we tested the readability level of both the original documents and the revised brochure using the Microsoft Word test, SMOG test and the Health Literacy Load Analysis test to ensure the readability level was appropriate for the IEP students who read at a 3rd to 4th grade level to comprehend. Based on the results of our research, we reduced the reading levels of the original documents from a 10th and 11th grade level to a 4th and 7th grade level. We also visited the IEP students twice to collect information that they would like to know about our topic and to field test a draft of our brochure. In the end, our goal was to provide these students with a readable, informative, and useful document that can help them better understand the health effects of smoking, the health risks of secondhand and thirdhand smoke, and the reasons that smokers continue to smoke so that they can take preventative health measures if needed.

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  Advanced Data Analytics and Optimal Control of Building Energy Systems

  Abinesh Selvacanabady

  This research addresses key issues for applying advanced building data analytics to energy efficient control opportunities. First the research identifies advancements and potential hurdles around the three primary means for acquiring data: energy management systems, dedicated measurement systems, and advanced computer software that accesses and archives data from energy management systems. These are described using case studies from commercial building control systems and web-based real time dedicated measurement technology. Next, the research describes effective rule-based data analytics and control strategies that are traditionally used. Rule-based data analytics utilize specific knowledge about HVAC systems to identify key data points and analytical methods to identify energy saving opportunities and develop improved control algorithms. The research describes both theory and application of these rule-based analytics for the control of systems like air-side economizer, ventilation fans, pumping and chilled water systems. Finally, the research proposes a framework to apply advanced machine learning and data mining techniques to the same problem. Machine-learning control differs from rule-based control in that this control type requires less specific knowledge about HVAC systems. The proposed framework uses existing data, where available, to pattern match and build robust models emulating the performance of the system under consideration. To these models, classical optimization algorithms (knapsack, greedy and shortest distance) and mathematical framework (Game theory and Design of Experiments) are adapted and applied to reach the best control strategy. For systems without past performance data, a stochastic framework using decision chains (Markov processes) and adaptive controls using the reinforcement learning method is proposed for the same. These techniques are demonstrated on select systems e.g. Pumping plants and HVAC systems.

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  Aerodynamic Feasibility Study on Highly Distributed Lifting Configurations for Aircraft

  Michael Mongin

  Preliminary experimental results showed that a highly distributed lift system (200 mini-wings) generated approximately 45% of the lift of the conventional mono-wing of equal wing area and equivalent aspect ratio. This performance was shockingly good given the penalty associated with the subscale Reynolds numbers under consideration. Hence, improvement in aerodynamic efficiency of the distributed lift configuration would be expected when scaled up to a General Aviation aircraft class scale. Taken in combination with the potential dramatic savings in wing weight, these preliminary results were considered sufficient justification to examine the concept more deeply. This paper will include the promising results of a parametric study performed using a Vortex Lattice Technique and compares those numerical results to experimental results. The results continue to suggest the possibility that the distributed lift configuration may have a practical niche when operational constraints are taken into consideration with some multi-wing configurations obtaining upwards of 60% of the lift of the equivalent mono-wing configuration.

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  Age-Dependent Effects of Short Chain Fatty Acids on Bacterial Burden In Vivo After Oral Infections with Listeria monocytogenes strains 10403s and 07PF0776

  Leah O'Malley Allen, Julia I Chapman, Ashton Nicole Dix, Paul Robert Maricocchi, Melani Muratore, Sam Lee Neanover, Erica Marie Rinehart, Nathan C Wallace

  Listeria monocytogenes (LM) is a foodborne pathogen that establishes its intracellular life cycle inside mammalian host cells. In elderly individuals, LM infections can spread to peripheral organs, causing meningitis with high mortality rate. We have previously shown that short chain fatty acids (SCFAs), fermentation acids found in large quantities in the intestinal lumen, exhibit strong regulatory effects on LM virulence gene regulation. In this study, we investigated the effects of SCFAs on LM virulence using an oral feeding model of LM infection with two different LM strains in young (2 months) as well as old (16-18 months) female BALB/c mice. LM strains used in this study include the serotype 1/2a strain 10403s and the cardiotropic serotype 4b strain 07PF0776. Mice were given SCFAs, individually as well as in two different combinations, in drinking water for four weeks, starved for 24 hours, and orally infected with LM-ladened Nutella. At five days post infection, organs (spleens, liver, heart, gallbladder, ileum, and colon) were harvested and homogenized to enumerate LM colony forming units. We found that for both LM strains, SCFA supplements render the young mice more susceptible to infections but prevent old mice from succumbing to infections. Furthermore, low levels of SCFA mixtures led to a decrease in bacterial burden in the heart of old, but not young, animals infected with the cardiotropic strain 07PF0776. To better understand the different infection outcomes by strains 10403s and 07PF0776, we characterized their LLO production in response to SCFAs in vitro under aerobic or anaerobic conditions. We noted that the presence of low levels of SCFA mixture under anaerobic conditions significantly enhanced LLO production in 10403s but not in 07PF0776. These results indicate that there is a strain-dependent difference in LM response to SCFAs. Moreover, there is an age-dependent effect of exogenous SCFAs on the outcome of animal infections.

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  A hybrid tree method using Heston-Hull-White type models.

  Nouf Alsomali

  In this poster, we consider a recently introduced hybrid tree pricing model. We consider the case where there are two stochastic processes and we consider the Heston-Hull-White model, and a generalized Hull-White stochastic interest rate model. We build two trees (X, V) and then take the cross product to construct the mesh of the tree. We then predict prices analogous to the binomial asset pricing model. To validate the model we compare the results to a simulation using the Monte Carlo method. We shall consider the case where there is zero correlation between the two stochastic processes and the case where there is nonzero correlation between the two stochastic processes.

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  Air Pollution and Environmental Justice

  Alan Matthew Theisen

  The air quality throughout the state of California varies from county to county. California also contains several large urban areas with a diverse population of varied racial and socioeconomic background. The aim of this study is to examine how people of different race and socioeconomic status are affected by air pollution as indicated by PM2.5 (particulate matter <2.5µm). PM2.5 is known to trigger and worsen chronic diseases such as asthma. In this study, we are going to examine (1) the links between asthma and PM2.5; and (2) the associations between PM2.5 concentrations and the socio-demographic characters of the population. We are also going to examine how such relationships vary in space through geographically weighted regression models. Investigating air quality with a focus on environmental justice helps us to consider the inequalities of more vulnerable social groups, and can help us learn more about what can be done to mitigate such inequalities.

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  Alcohol: A More Effective and Culturally Accessible Explanation for UD’s Intensive English Program Students

  Nick Patrick Andriole, Paige Rene Christine Hallstrom, Kennedy Cozette Sana, Megan Lynn Watson

  Alcohol consumption is a part of the college culture in the United States and is, therefore, a common health topic of concern on university campuses. However, students in the University of Dayton Intensive English Program (IEP) have limited exposure to and knowledge about alcohol due to the religious practices and the laws in their home countries. Most existing healthcare documents in the U.S. about alcohol are written at a high reading level, which limits the resources available for the IEP students to learn about this topic. Our team conducted a Health Literacy Load Analysis, SMOG test, and Flesch-Kincaid test on a document about alcohol published by the South Australia government. We found that this public health text was written at a 11th grade reading level. Over the course of the project, we met with the IEP students twice: once to assess their information needs and once to field test how well the IEP students understood a draft of our team’s revised brochure. The main purpose of our brochure was to educate the IEP students about alcohol, including common reasons why people drink as well as the effects of consuming alcohol on the body. Our revised brochure was written at a 4th grade reading level and addressed the cultural context of the IEP students. Through our collaboration with the IEP students, we gained a perspective on the necessary work required to make health information accessible to low literacy groups.

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  Alien tree’s sugary SOS exploited by thieving tramp ant: unidirectional benefit in a tritrophic mélange

  Emily Elizabeth Jones, Natalie Christina Martin

  Triadica sebifera (Euphorbiaceae), a centuries old invader of southern ecosystems, was virtually free from natural enemies until the specific, hypermetamorphic moth Caloptilia triadicae (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae) appeared in 2004. Simultaneously, populations of the destructive tawny crazy ant, Nylanderia fulva (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), spread cospatially across the southeast. To examine potential interactions among these species, we sought answers to these questions: 1) does Caloptilia induce extrafloral nectar production in Triadica; 2) does N. fulva consume nectar, larvae, or both; and 3) does N. fulva provide indirect defense to the tree, or to its attacker? To understand these interactions, and their implications for southern ecosystems, we conducted a series of lab, greenhouse, and field experiments in coastal Texas. In response to herbivory by Caloptilia, potted Triadica saplings strongly induced extrafloral nectar production. Percent leaf damage explained 57% of the variation in cumulative nectar volume (p<.0001), and nectar volume on saplings with >20% of leaves damaged was significantly greater than on controls (p=0.0005). Nylanderia fulva exploited available nectar resources without attacking Caloptilia larvae. On potted saplings, nectar volume was significantly lower when ants were present (p=0.008), while no differences were observed in Caloptilia survivorship (p=0.56). Likewise, no differences in Caloptilia abundance or parasitism rates were observed when ants were excluded from naturally recruited Triadica saplings (p=0.97;p=0.8). Large Caloptilia infestations reduced trunk elongation in Triadica saplings (R2=0.32, p<.0001), but had no effect on leaf production, biomass, or survivorship. Because Triadica saplings supplied N. fulva workers a carbohydrate resource while sustaining heavy damage, and because neither Triadica nor Caloptilia benefited from worker foraging, N. fulva was the only beneficiary in this alien, tritrophic interaction.

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  Alternative Routes for Ethanol Extraction Using Green Solvents and Nanotechnology

  Joseph Daniel Knurek

  Ethanol has emerged as a promising alternative biofuel source in recent years. However, current separation techniques for ethanol processing require high energy consumption, causing large scale production to be inefficient. One area of potential improvement in separation cost could be in nanoparticle-enhanced liquid-liquid extraction; removing ethanol from an aqueous solution utilizing castor oil as a green solvent. A castor oil-ethanol mixture would allow for easier separation and purification of ethanol, due to the large difference in the species’ boiling points. It is hypothesized that adding lignin-coated iron oxide nanoparticles to the aqueous solution would increase the transfer efficiency of the solute. Additionally, these nanoparticles would render the mixture superparamagnetic properties, allowing for a magnetic field to be induced around the fluid in separation, further increasing the transfer efficiency due to the magnetic motion in the liquid. This work focuses on setting up prototype equipment that includes a mixer with a magnetic field generator for liquid-liquid extraction magnetic separations. The ultimate goal of this research is to determine if an increase in ethanol transfer efficiency can be seen from the addition of the lignin coated magnetic nanoparticles to the aqueous and green solvents mixture, and if a further increase in transfer efficiency can be seen from the introduction of a magnetic field to the fluids during separation.

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  Alumni Perceptions of Collegiate Recreation

  Cody Gene Christianson

  Collegiate Recreation professionals at Fort Lewis College design learning for student employees based upon assumptions, undergraduate student feedback, and personal experience. The purpose of this study is to provide collegiate recreation professionals at Fort Lewis College a better understanding of how the student employee experience benefits the personal and professional lives of alumni after they leave the comforts of the campus. This study provides insight into the understanding and application of skills developed throughout a student’s time within collegiate recreation. By utilizing interviews with six student employee alumni of Fort Lewis College Recreational Services, this study uncovers the essence of the student employment experience while highlighting core components that create a transformational experience. The results of this study helps collegiate recreation professionals at Fort Lewis College intentionally design the student employment experience in order to enhance and accentuate the components that make the experience truly transformational.

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  A Mathematical Model of Stock Price and Some Related Analysis

  Yitian Wang

  In this poster, a mathematical model is used to characterize the price of a stock over time. By utilizing the model, we can estimate the average and variation of the stock price, and hence predict the trend of the future stock price.