Future Changes in Mean and Extreme Monsoon Precipitation in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin, China, in the CMIP5 Models

Author(s)

Yanjuan Wu, Shanghai Normal University
Shuang-Ye Wu, University of DaytonFollow
Jiahong Wen, Shanghai Normal University
Felipe Tagle, Cornell University
Ming Xu, Shanghai Typhoon Institute
Jianguo Tan, Shanghai Institute of Meteorological Science

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

11-2016

Publication Source

Journal of Hydrometeorology

Abstract

In this study, the potential future changes of mean and extreme precipitation in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin (MLYRB), eastern China, are assessed using the models of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Historical model simulations are first compared with observations in order to evaluate model performance. In general, the models simulate the precipitation mean and frequency better than the precipitation intensity and extremes, but still have difficulty capturing precipitation patterns over complex terrains. They tend to overestimate precipitation mean, frequency, and intensity while underestimating the extremes. After correcting for model biases, the spatial variation of mean precipitation projected by the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) is improved, so the MME after the bias correction is used to project changes for the years 2021–50 and 2071–2100 relative to 1971–2000 under two emission scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results show that with global warming, precipitation will become less frequent but more intense over the MLYRB. Relative changes in extremes generally exceed those in mean precipitation. Moreover, increased precipitation extremes are also expected even in places where mean precipitation is projected to decrease in 2021–50. The overall increase in extreme precipitation could potentially lead to more frequent floods in this already flood-prone region.

Inclusive pages

2785-2797

ISBN/ISSN

1525-755X

Document Version

Published Version

Comments

This document has been made available for download in accordance with the publisher's policy on open-access.

Permission documentation on file.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0033.1

Copyright

© Copyright 2016 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a website or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. All AMS journals and monograph publications are registered with the Copyright Clearance Center (http://www.copyright.com). Questions about permission to use materials for which AMS holds the copyright can also be directed to the AMS Permissions Officer at permissions@ametsoc.org. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy statement, available on the AMS website (http://www.ametsoc.org/CopyrightInformation).

Publisher

American Meteorological Society

Volume

17

Issue

11

Peer Reviewed

yes

eCommons Citation

Wu, Yanjuan; Wu, Shuang-Ye; Wen, Jiahong; Tagle, Felipe; Xu, Ming; and Tan, Jianguo, "Future Changes in Mean and Extreme Monsoon Precipitation in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin, China, in the CMIP5 Models" (2016). Geology Faculty Publications. 59.
https://ecommons.udayton.edu/geo_fac_pub/59