Planning for Large Carnivore Recovery and Expansion in Missouri’s Landscapes

Date of Award

5-1-2025

Degree Name

M.S. in Biology

Department

Department of Biology

Advisor/Chair

Mariela Gantchoff

Abstract

Large mammalian carnivores play important roles within healthy ecosystems, but they have a history of population decline and local extinctions due to human influences. As conservation efforts to protect threatened species have encouraged population growth and expansion, some of these large carnivores have returned to their historic species ranges. While vital to ecosystem health, recovering carnivores, like bears and cougars, are bound to experience some conflict with humans, such as wildlife-vehicle collisions, damage to livestock, and threats to human safety, all of which present challenges for humans and carnivores alike. Therefore, understanding patterns of recolonization can inform efforts to minimize these potential conflicts. The aim of this project was to investigate these patterns of recovery and expansion in two large carnivores, the cougar (Puma concolor) and the American black bear (Ursus americanus), in Missouri. In the U.S., cougars exist mainly in the west, but recent sightings of these large cats in areas further east suggest that they may be expanding back into their previous species range. Therefore, this study aimed to predict potential cougar distribution in Missouri by utilizing locations of cougar reports along with relevant environmental variables to produce a MaxEnt species distribution model. I found that cougar occurrence was positively associated with terrain ruggedness and vegetation quality, and negatively associated with distance to natural cover, indicating that the preservation of natural spaces will be imperative in order for a cougar population to become established. Additionally, this model based on local environmental variables and cougar data predicted a larger range of core cougar habitat than that predicted by other studies, which are based on expert opinion and cougar data from western populations. This highlights the need for local data in large carnivore species distribution models due to the behavioral differences between established and dispersing individuals.Once widespread in the U.S., the American black bear experienced significant range contractions and population declines, and the population was nearly extirpated until a reintroduction in a neighboring state. Now black bears have expanded back into Missouri with a steadily growing population. However, this recovering population is subject to a lethal form of conflict with humans—bear-vehicle collisions—which appear to be increasing in number. Therefore, this study aimed to use data from radio-collared black bears in Missouri along with relevant environmental variables to produce two MaxEnt species distribution models: a black bear road-crossing model, and a black bear vehicle-collision model, in order to identify sections of road where bears are likely to cross and sections of road where bears are likely to experience collisions with vehicles. I found that bear road-crossings are more likely in areas with greater projected bear density and lower human density, but among all bear road-crossings, collisions were more likely in areas with relatively higher human density and lower bear density. By identifying areas of potential bear road-crossings and bear-vehicle collisions, this research serves as a necessary first step to mitigating such conflict.

Keywords

Biology, Wildlife Conservation, Wildlife Management

Rights Statement

Copyright 2025, author.

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