Ethiopian Modernization: Opportunities and Derailments | Department of Philosophy

This open educational resource by Messay Kebede attempts to answer one basic question, which is the question of knowing why, despite recurring opportunities, changes promising betterment for the Ethiopian people fail to materialize. Dr. Kebede writes: "The desire to allow open access to a large number of Ethiopian readers explains the reason why this manuscript was not submitted to a normal academic publisher. At first, an academic institute in Addis Ababa agreed to meet the condition by publishing a limited number of hard copies while also posting an open access electronic version on its website. Unfortunately, the agreement fell apart following my resolution to include a chapter critical of Abiy Ahmed’s policy, the current prime minister of Ethiopia. In light of the drastic political shift that carried Abiy from the promise of democratic changes to the too-familiar resort to dictatorial methods, a scholarly investigation could not leave out this turn of events without compromising its standing. All the more reason for including the shift is that it provides a decisive argument to the main thesis of the manuscript, namely, the active presence of a faulty dynamics within the Ethiopian state structure derailing the implementation of positive reforms since Ethiopia’s encounter with the modern world. Aware of the closure of any possibility for open access posting in Ethiopia so long as the present government is in place, I decided to send out the manuscript to some of the websites stationed outside Ethiopia and regularly visited by Ethiopian intellectuals and a wide Ethiopian readership. I hereby extend my gratitude to the editors and webmasters of the websites I contacted for agreeing to post the manuscript in its entirety."

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Cover, Title Page, Table of Contents, Introduction

Messay Kebede

This book examines and theoretically articulates the various facets and crucial phases of Ethiopia’s encounter with the modern world and the challenges its efforts to modernize faced during the course of three consecutive yet highly divergent political regimes. These phases roughly correspond to Haile Selassie’s and post-Haile Selassie’s Ethiopia, with the post-period spreading over two milestones, namely, the revolutionary shift of the Provisional Military Administrative Council (the Derg) and the no less critical reshaping of the Ethiopian political system by an ethnonationalist agenda subsequent to the Tigray People's Liberation Front’s (TPLF) seizure of state power. Despite their drastic differences, a main theme deriving from a shared feature unites these three regimes: using different ideological frameworks, they all promised modernization and social progress under the directive of a strong and centralized state. Not only did the promise never materialize, but it was also overshadowed by social conflicts and even civil wars, the severity of which has created doubt in the minds of many observers as to the viability of Ethiopia as a united country. The book exerts a major effort to analyze the cause and the different manifestations of the common feature tying the three regimes, with the view of laying out its detrimental impact and identifying the direction liable to remove it. To this end, the book extends its inquiry into post-TPLF Ethiopia to see whether the current Abiy Ahmed’s government is putting in place the reforms needed to deal with the chronic problems of the country.
Chapter I — On Theories of Modernization

Messay Kebede

The vast literature pertaining to development and modernity discloses philosophical questions that instigate the controversies dividing the various theories of modernization. Of these philosophical issues, the most crucial and recurrent is the question of the prime factor or mover of modernization. The reason for the philosophical issue of primacy derives from the fact that modernization involves cultural as well as socioeconomic changes. Following the philosophical distinction between the spiritual and the material, the clash between the two basic schools of idealism and materialism frames the philosophical approach around the question of knowing whether the prime cause of modernization is cultural or material. Let us elaborate on this point further.
Chapter II — Survey of Ethiopia’s Survival: Definition and Controversies

Messay Kebede

The last chapter has unraveled the close link between modernization and the emergence of a survival ethos among ruling elites of traditional societies in transition. To approach the case of Ethiopia’s modernization from the same angle of explanation, it is necessary first to make sure that some groups among Ethiopian ruling elites had shown a propensity that could be defined as a salvational will. Sure enough, any ruling elite wants to protect the social order that benefits it. However, the salvational will, as defined in the previous chapter, is less the desire to perpetuate the status quo than the will to reform because of the belief that only reforms that include the forsaking of some traditional prerogatives can ensure survival.
Chapter III — The Ethiopian Forces of Survival

Messay Kebede

To account for the protracted endurance of Ethiopia, the last chapter hinted at two requisites, namely, a system of power suited for defense and the sense of shouldering a mandate. Such a successful record, in addition to presupposing a robust and effective ability for self-defense, necessitates a leadership that feels entrusted with a mission. From a cursory examination of Ethiopian history, one can confidently surmise that, at least until the overthrow of the last emperor, Ethiopia survived for so long thanks to a system of power that was protective of survival and bearer of a mission. The system rested on three interacting pillars: the imperial throne, the church, and the nobility. Let us review their inner workings and interconnections.
Chapter IV — Eurocentric versus Ethio-centric Approaches to Ethiopia’s Modernization Lag: The Concept of Derailment

Messay Kebede

After studying the link between survival and modernization, the next logical step is to provide concrete answers to the question of why Ethiopia’s impressive record of survival failed to initiate a successful process of modernization. In fact, the greater the resolution to survive, the more determined should have been the drive toward modernization. Yet, not only is Ethiopia still ranked among the poorest countries, but it is also entangled in numerous internal conflicts, the primary consequence of which is an unending political instability threatening its very existence. However, before delving into the reasons for the Ethiopian failure to modernize, we must make sure that the analysis is sufficiently free from the drawbacks of the Eurocentric account, that is, from an account solely based on the self-assumed normative standing of the West. Indeed, in speaking of failure, the study commits to providing a native explanation, the very one that derives the failure from the choices made by Ethiopian elite groups.
Chapter V — Derailed Modernization: The Imperial Phase

Messay Kebede

The critical review of the explanation of the failure of Ethiopian modernization from the perspective of modernization theory, that is, from the alleged contrast between tradition and modernity, has revealed that the concept of derailed modernization is more appropriate than the argument stating that inherent defects prevented Ethiopia’s modernization. The expression “derailed” puts the blame not so much on inner obstacles as on the spoiling of assets and opportunities. The change of approach speaks of engagement into a wandering path, the outcome of which was and still is the multiplication of difficulties. Indeed, obstacles hinder, but they can also be either removed or circumvented. Not so derailment: because it is a wandering path, it initiates a movement that continuously bumps against itself, and so is caught in a self-destructive cycle. Let us see how Haile Selassie laid the foundational phase of the wandering course.
Chapter VI —The Radicalization of Ethiopian Students

Messay Kebede

When one analyzes the Ethiopian Revolution of 1974, the aspect that needs to be primarily explained is not so much the uprising against the imperial regime as its precipitous shift toward socialist demands and slogans. Many unsolved problems liable to provoke widespread discontents saddled the regime. None of them, however, required or invited a socialist revolution per se. The decisive impulse toward a socialist revolution came undoubtedly from the Ethiopian student movement. Accordingly, any inquiry about the revolution must begin by unraveling the reasons that brought about the radicalization of a great majority of Ethiopian students and intellectuals. A compelling reason for inquiring is that the movement had grave deleterious effects on the modernization process, if only because it sowed the seeds of an authoritarian culture and elitist style of leadership that repeatedly canceled out (and continue to do so) reformist attempts in favor of extremist directions.
Chapter VII — The Overthrow of the Imperial Regime

Messay Kebede

In distinction to the tendency of imputing the delay of Ethiopian modernization to the lack of social peace, which was used as a pretext to institute and justify imperial absolutism, the radicalization of students, in line with the unadulterated principle “modernity versus tradition, blamed the presence of traditional features, notably the impeding role of the “feudal” class, the anachronism of the imperial state, and the obscurantist influence of the church, for the general failure of Ethiopian modernization. The students’ standpoint assumed the ideological leadership of the social protests and spread the conviction that Marxist-Leninist socialism is the only remedy to put Ethiopia back on the track of rapid modernization. The equation of modernization with socialism became all the more compelling as the theory consistently denounced the stifling and economically crippling impact of imperialism on developing countries. The choice of socialism as the only solution, in addition to underpinning the opposition between modernity and tradition, shifted the model to follow from the West to socialist countries, in particular to the then Soviet Union.
Chapter VIII — Derailed Modernization: The Derg’s Phase

Messay Kebede

The cultural trait making higher social positions into contested temporary occupations (see Chapter III on idil) should have found, in the modernization process of evicting outdated, anti-modern occupants, an even better opportunity to vent itself. In the traditional system, power struggles opposed ambitious individuals who shared common values and a mutual understanding of social life. The struggle did not go beyond the act of changing places in a fixed social framework. However, as a result of the impact of exogenous modern ideas, the struggle shifted to a confrontation between elites with different ideologies and social programs. These elites want to use state power either to definitively change the social system in their favor or to counter those who are planning a change perceived as hostile to them. Understandably, the disagreement over values and social ideals turns the struggle into an irreconcilable confrontation, whose sole solution is revolution, that is, the complete overthrow of ruling elites, on the one hand, and, on the other, the elimination of all those perceived as rivals. Put differently, under the impact of modern means of suppression and antagonistic social values, the old power struggle turned into a fight between exclusive social visions targeting the elimination of opponents. The distortion of political competition into a form of violent exclusion over ideological differences can be said to have taken a firm root in Ethiopia with the radicalization of the student movement and its aftermaths, to wit, the emergence of the Derg and the adoption of socialism.
Chapter IX — Derailed Modernization: The Ethnonationalist Phase

Messay Kebede

The last chapter concluded with the generalized expectation that the fall of the Derg would set in motion some form of democratization dismantling the wide-ranging restrictions of the existing socialist system, even if there was uncertainty about the real political program of the victorious Tigrean insurgents. Despite promises of democratization, it did not take long for people to realize that Ethiopia was heading for yet another version of hegemonic rule, this one replacing the class ideology of the previous regime with ethnonationalism. As though a curse were on it, Ethiopia’s modernization will once more stumble over an ideology and a political system framed for the implementation of a different brand of exclusionary politics.
Chapter X — Where to, Ethiopia?

Messay Kebede

In the wake of the dethronement of the TPLF, Ethiopia was presented with four options arising from the implementation of ethnonationalist ideology and policies for 27 years. The options have generated politico-ideological movements that compete for the seizure of power in Ethiopia. Broadly speaking, these movements can be viewed as different stands in relation to Article 39 of the constitution granting ethnic groups an unconditional right to self-determination, including secession (see previous chapter). Let us briefly examine the four positions with the view of clearly demarcating the lines separating them.
Chapter XI — Recapitulation and Therapeutic Roadmap

Messay Kebede

This book revolved around a central theme, which is to show how the imperative to hold on to absolute power derailed the modernization of Ethiopia under three consecutive but radically different political regimes, the irony being that each came to power on the promise of removing the defects of the regime that preceded it. Its main argument can be summed up thus: from Haile Selassie’s imperial state, military socialism, to the two versions of ethnic federalism, the framing of modernization in an exclusionary political system and the attendant excluding forms of ideological thinking are responsible in large measure for the derailment. As Kostas Loukeris notes:

"All political ideologies currently promoted in Ethiopia share the commonality of political exclusion. This means that all of them are based on particular characteristics that force other Ethiopian citizens to either accept them and thus deny their own ideological orientation or feel excluded from its political system. These processes create grievances and breed conflict."

Let us recapitulate the main findings of our study.